Risk & uncertainty

Plan resilience

Risk & uncertainty

See how the same plan behaves across many possible market paths—and why returns near retirement can matter more than the long-run average.

Simulated plan success —

Running 1,000 market paths…

Downside ending liquid assets—10th percentile at plan end

Typical ending liquid assets—Median at plan end

Most sensitive years—Sequence risk is highest around withdrawals

Range of outcomes

Projected liquid assets

10th–90th percentile Median

Liquid assets include investments and cash. Property is excluded because it may not be available to fund annual spending.

Sequence of returns

The order can change the outcome

Comparing the same five returns in a different order near retirement…

Losses arrive first—Ending liquid assets

Losses arrive later—Ending liquid assets

How to read this

Focus on resilience, not prediction

Success rateThe share of paths with no unfunded spending through your plan end age.
Shaded rangeThe middle 80% of simulated liquid-asset outcomes—not a promise or confidence interval.
Downside resultA difficult but modeled outcome. One in ten simulations ended below it.

Method & assumptions

Horizon runs 1,000 annual market paths using your expected investment return and 15% annual volatility. Returns vary independently by year and are applied before that year’s contributions and withdrawals. Cash and real estate continue to use the growth assumptions in your plan.

The simulation includes your timing, retirement spending, Social Security, goals, home costs, and contributions. Success means the modeled plan has no unfunded spending through your selected plan end age.

This is an educational stress test. It does not model taxes, investment fees, asset allocation, return correlations, changing inflation, or future decisions. Results are estimates, not guarantees.